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After a successful 2023, the Chinese restaurant sector saw multiple closures last year. This may not directly affect the wine industry, but it suggests a lack of enthusiasm for spending on food and drink.
Most restaurants in China, apart from the smarter ones aimed at rich locals, ex-pats and tourists have contributed relatively little to Chinese wine consumption, and almost certainly not to imports. The bottles behind the bar are more likely to contain local baijiu spirit or beer, and maybe, just possibly, a dusty example or two of Great Wall or Changyu.
However, the financial health of the restaurant sector can be a good indicator of the mood of middle-class citizens. Eating out in China, as elsewhere, is one of the first areas of unnecessary expenditure to be cut when wallets tighten.
According to a report in the Japan Times, last year was a memorably poor one for the Chinese on-premise sector. Beijing municipal data shows restaurant net profits falling by 88% over the first half of last year. The average lifespan of an establishment in the Chinese capital is just 12 months, while the figure nationally is not much better, at 500 days.
As an anonymous restaurant manager told the Japanese publication, "People just have no money. Or if they do, they're unwilling to spend like before, because it's so hard to come by."
The surviving restaurants saw revenue growth of 5.3%, compared to over 20% the previous year. They are facing increasing competition from neighbours who have dropped their prices, and drink shops and bakeries.
This situation may improve in 2025, following efforts by the Chinese government to reboot consumer spending, but reports of business during the recent Chinese New Year season have not been encouraging. China-watchers will be factoring this into their projected sales.
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